However, after peaking in , during the height of the Syrian civil war, total deaths from terrorism have fallen every year for the last six years, with the largest falls occurring in Syria, Iraq, and Nigeria. Although the impact of terrorism and conflict have fallen over the past six years, the level of civil and political unrest has risen.
The number of violent demonstrations rose in 61 countries since , and fell in just 27 countries. There was a per cent increase globally in riots, general strikes, and anti-government demonstrations between and There is currently no sign that this trend is abating.
In the Ongoing Conflict domain improved for the first time since , with falls in the total number of conflicts fought, and a decrease in the overall intensity of internal conflict. Twenty-one countries improved on internal conflicts fought, while only one deteriorated. However, although the total number of conflict-related deaths has been falling for the past six years, the total number of conflicts and deaths is still much higher than a decade ago.
Since , the number of conflicts globally has increased by 88 per cent. The Militarisation domain has improved by 4. The armed service rate has fallen in countries, and military expenditure as a percentage of GDP fell in However, there are signs that the trend of falling militarisation is slowing and even reversing in some countries.
Both the armed services rate and military expenditure have deteriorated since The increase in militarisation comes on the back of rising tensions between the most economically and militarily powerful nations in the world. In the last five years, the MENA region recorded the five largest deteriorations in military expenditure.
This figure is equivalent to The economic impact of violence increased by 0. This was mainly driven by an increase in global military expenditure, which rose by 3. In the ten countries most affected by violence, the average economic impact of violence was equivalent to 36 per cent of GDP, compared to just under four per cent in the countries least affected by violence.
Syria, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and the Central African Republic incurred the largest proportional economic cost of violence in , equivalent to 82, 42, 40, and 37 per cent of GDP, respectively. Violence remains one of the most pressing issues for people globally. The poll found that violence is cited as the biggest risk to daily safety in nearly a third of countries, and is the second most cited risk globally behind road accidents.
Worldwide, over 60 per cent of people are at least somewhat worried about sustaining serious harm from violent crime. As such, it does not include the impact of the COVID pandemic, lockdowns and the global recession that ensued. Analysis finds that Positive Peace is strongly correlated with better economic outcomes. Countries that develop high levels of Positive Peace display greater degrees of economic strength and resilience. Countries that improved in Positive Peace between and had annual per capita GDP growth almost three percentage points higher than countries that deteriorated in Positive Peace.
As such, Positive Peace can be used in financial markets helping investors identify reliable and sustainable growth opportunities. In addition to improvements in GDP, Positive Peace is statistically associated with better performance in a range of other macro-economic indicators, including stronger flows of foreign direct investment, appreciating currencies and lower and more stable interest and inflation rates.
Trends in Positive Peace can be used to forecast future economic outperformance in countries. This is an invaluable tool for financial analysts seeking to complement their traditional macroeconomic forecasting models. This analysis is discussed in this report and will be further developed in the upcoming Business and Peace publication.
Positive Peace is also conceptually and empirically linked with the notion of ethical investing, or as it is often described, environmental, social and governance ESG investing. Positive Peace is statistically linked to improvements in ESG measures and as such can be seen as creating the background environments where countries will perform well in such measures. Positive Peace can be used as a predictor of superior ESG performance and can be applied in the design of impact type investment strategies or as a risk assessment and management tool.
Global levels of Positive Peace have improved since at least , with of the countries, or 82 per cent, improving in the PPI over this period. Positive Peace improves slowly, therefore planning needs to be longitudinal. Much of the progress since is due to improvements within the Structures domain of Positive Peace, which includes measures related to economic, technological and scientific development.
They tend to grow almost uninterruptedly, reflecting the continuous increase in national incomes, the constant development of new technologies and the permanent stream of new discoveries in science and health. In contrast, factors relating to social behaviour and social relations, as measured by the Attitudes domain, have deteriorated considerably over the past decade.
These factors measure social views, tensions and perceptions and have been negatively affected by a rise in corruption, greater polarisation of political views, the intensification of tensions between social groups and the dissemination of false information.
Some countries have experienced steep declines in this domain, including developed countries, such as Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, the US and the UK. Six of the eight Pillars of Positive Peace have improved over the last decade. These developments mostly reflect the dissemination of information technologies and the growth in goods and services consumption and trade. High Levels of Human Capital also improved markedly, on the back of greater access to education and professional training.
It was also influenced by increased technical and scientific research output. Either corruption itself has become more prevalent over the last decade or perceptions of it have deteriorated. In line with these developments, governments have also become less effective and reliable, with the Well-Functioning Government Pillar deteriorating in 98 countries since Ecological stress from global warming is proven to exacerbate conflicts over resources such as land and water, particularly in East Africa.
For all its shortcomings, the UN climate agreement is evidence that the world can tackle and mitigate crises by co-operation, instead of war. The promotion of arms sales and heavy spending on aggressive military capabilities is heightening global tensions. The proliferation of arms drives conflict and makes violence more likely. Arms treaty signatories must be held to their word, as we build evidence of violations and hold sellers accountable.
We can also build support for a groundbreaking new convention that bans nuclear weapons and makes it illegal to possess or use them. Humility and willingness to atone for past aggression on the international stage is essential — as is an end to the self-serving and counter-productive policy in the Middle East. If governments expect young, marginalized people to embrace an open society rather than pursue more violent and vengeful paths, they must allow public dissent.
Across the world — and the political spectrum — this space must be defended from repressive tools such as ad hoc administrative regulation, misuse of anti-terrorist measures, arbitrary arrest and imprisonment, even torture and murder. Much conflict can be understood as a youth revolt against established corrupt systems run by, generally, older men. This is compounded by classic victim-blaming, in which young men are treated as a ticking time bomb. Short-term anti-war movements have taken the place of active and permanent peace movements.
Peace starts with you. Ordinary citizens can make a difference. Think about who loses when you win. Are the people around you heard and respected or marginalized, ignored and left out? Make a decision to care about what happens to them. Start a constructive conversation with someone you disagree with. Every one of us can choose to make society more just and peaceful, or more unjust and warlike. This article is from the September-October issue of New Internationalist. You can access the entire archive of over issues with a digital subscription.
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Support us » Support us » Support us ». Subscribe Ethical Shop. Manhattan Central Park - Imagine Mosaic. Photo YourSpace CC 2. Help us produce more like this Patreon is a platform that enables us to offer more to our readership. X New Internationalist is a lifeline for activists, campaigners and readers who value independent journalism. Related Articles. What if… armed forces were abolished? Symon Hill envisages a world without the military. War and peace. A graphic snapshot of world peacekeeping trends from Dan Smith.
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